|
“Happiness in marriage is entirely a matter of chance.”
–
Jane
Austen
And who
understands chance better than a mathematician? Forget the pastor,
priest, or marriage counselor: Before taking that long walk down a
short aisle, look up your local math professor.
So says
James Murray, a professor of mathematical biology at the University
of Washington. I have no idea what “mathematical biology” is, but
it sounds like a nasty combination of the average student’s most
feared subjects, the academic equivalent of “incumbent politician.”
Whatever it is, there are enough mathematical biologists to have
held a conference in Scotland this month, at which Dr. Murray
explained his theories.
Love and
marriage, it turns out, go together like a numerator and
denominator. Until now mathematical biologists have used
computerized formulas to analyze biological processes such as the
growth of diseases, which is apparently close enough to marriage
that Murray was able to tweak the model into a divorce predictor.
The
Washington Times reports that Murray claims a 94 percent success
rate, good enough to throw most marriage counselors into a jealous
snit. According to Murray,
“Math provides a language for
interpreting the human interaction.” If true, my wife and I have
wasted a lot of time talking that could have been better spent
working on equations.
We actually tried it once.
She needed a statistics class and I had earned a few extra bucks in
college tutoring the subject. We had been married long enough to
know I couldn’t teach her anything, but hope and love spring eternal
so we gave it a go. She did well in the class, we stayed married,
and that’s all I’m going to say because I plan to keep it that way.
Still,
Murray says it isn’t that complicated and the only math needed is
high school algebra. This will be no comfort to anyone who has
helped his or her kid with algebra homework, but if Murray really
can predict wedded bliss he’d deserve the Nobel Prize in physics if
the math was Sesame Street level. Or at least the peace prize.
Fortunately for the math-impaired, couples do not have to crunch the
numbers themselves. Husband and wife simply talk to each other for
about 15 minutes while Murray keeps score. This isn’t idle
chitchat; the subjects include sex, money, child-rearing, the proper
position for the thermostat, the proper position for toilet seats,
the proper position for Arnold Schwarzenegger, and whether the
wife’s outfit makes her look fat. (Warning: Artistic license at
work.) Points are awarded based on civility, calmness, and the
pair’s ability to influence each other.
Murray
has been conducting research since 1992 with the help of psychology
professor John Gottman, who is also big on a spouse’s ability to
influence. Specifically, Gottman concluded in a 1998 report that
the most happily married men are those who do what their wives say.
No need to run the numbers on that.
Murray
believes his model can help people avoid
“screaming-and-throwing-plates marriage,” and would like to see his
test required for marriage licenses. Bad matches could still get
hitched – one might as well try to stop moths from flying through
flames – but would be directed to therapy. Think of it as a
full-employment law for marriage counselors.
Not that
they need it. I suspect the happy marriage industry is already good
for billions of dollars when you add up fees for therapy, camps,
seminars, compatibility quizzes, books, and the other big-bucks
hoops folks hop through in the quest for a perfect marriage.
It’s
only natural mathematicians would want a piece of the pie, but the
formula is what it has always been: Choose carefully, live
prayerfully, and try being as flawless as you think your spouse
should be. Most of us can’t pull it off, but it does make one more
forgiving. Best of all, there is no algebra required.
|
