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We know the threat, but do we
get the point?
The point of a needle, that
is. With the announcement that smallpox vaccine will be made
available to all Americans in 2003, debates over its safety and
prudence have broken out like so many blisters.
The
disease was officially declared eradicated in 1980, which
unfortunately is not the same thing as extinct. You never know when
you might need a deadly virus, so our government and others
squirreled away a few vials for a rainy day.
Now
it’s raining, or at least cloudy. While I’m not thrilled that
anyone has supplies of this stuff, the thought that a rogue nation
or ragtag terror outfit might have smallpox tucked in the fridge is
enough to cause a full-blown epidemic of the willies.
For
those who haven’t witnessed it (the last case in the United States
occurred in 1949), smallpox is nasty, nasty, nasty. I’ve seen
photos that are enough to make you
want to live in a bubble, but the question remains whether fear is
reason enough to commit the necessary resources and chance the side
effects of mass vaccination.
Associated Press describes a “worst scenario” attack involving
40 terrorists using portable devices to spew the virus,
simultaneously striking 10 large airports on a busy day. Assuming
few civilians were inoculated, the death toll was estimated at
40,000 to 55,000, approaching the total American body count of the
Vietnam War.
I
have no great faith in airport security and it’d be foolish to
discount this possibility altogether. Still, if my “the dumb guys
draw the suicide missions” theory of terrorist organizations holds
true, several of the hypothetical attackers would do something to
draw attention to themselves, assuming walking around an airport
working a spray rig isn’t enough.
The
moment one was caught, the nation’s airports would slam shut even
faster than after the September 11 attacks. Smallpox vaccine, which
is readily available and prevents the disease if administered within
a few days of exposure, would be rushed to each site. There would
doubtless be casualties, but no massacre.
Making the vaccine available now on a voluntary basis seems prudent
and respectful of individual rights, but it will not contain the
real damage of a smallpox threat. That, in 21st century
America, is the threat itself.
Even
a relatively modest attack would have Americans clawing each other
aside in inoculation lines and take an enormous financial toll. The
recent anthrax scares cost billions (Congress allocated
$675 million for post office cleanup alone), and for a while it
seemed hazmat teams shut down a city block every time someone
knocked powdered sugar off a doughnut. Mail service was disrupted
for days and entire government buildings shut down; hoaxers
amplified the alarm for sick kicks.
Compared to smallpox, anthrax is a head cold, even though an
outbreak would likely be rapidly contained. There is no cure for
smallpox; anthrax can be treated with antibiotics. Smallpox
fatality runs 20 to 40 percent, depending on the age and general
health of those infected. If anthrax caused a fright, a confirmed
case of smallpox on U.S. soil will spark hysteria.
There is no vaccine for
panic, so voluntary inoculation of those who choose it might be the
next best thing. The risks are fairly small (1 to 3 fatalities per
million and perhaps 15 to 20 cases of serious side effects), but
1960s style mandatory vaccinations would start a revolt. A
generation that hasn’t seen the epidemics that once killed millions,
where many balk at childhood inoculations known to save lives at
even less risk, will not buy it. Yet.
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